USD/CAD: Trading a Canadian GDP



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Canadian GDP is a dimensions of a prolongation and expansion of a economy. Analysts cruise GDP one a many critical indicators of mercantile activity. A reading that is improved than a marketplace foresee is bullish for a Canadian dollar.

Here are all a details, and 5 probable outcomes for USD/CAD.

Published on Friday during 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

The Canadian GDP is released monthly, distinct many other grown countries which post GDP on a quarterly basis. The pivotal indicator provides an glorious denote of a health and instruction of a economy. Traders should compensate sold courtesy to Canadian GDP, as an astonishing reading can fast impact a transformation of USD/CAD.

GDP has struggled, posting 3 declines in a past 4 readings. The Apr reading came in during -0.1%, brief of a guess of +0.1%. The guess for the June news stands during a prosaic 0.0%. If GDP contracts again in a arriving release, we could see a loonie remove ground.

Sentiments and levels

The wobbly Canadian dollar has not recovered since the BOC astounded with a rate cut progressing in July. In a US, meanwhile, there is a clever expectancy that a Fed will lift rates shortly, maybe as early as September. So, a altogether view is bullish on USD/CAD towards this release.

Technical levels, from tip to bottom: 1.3346, 1.3165, 1.3063, 1.2924, 1.2798 and 1.2673.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: -0.3% to +0.3%. In such a scenario, USD/CAD is expected to arise within range, with a tiny possibility of violation higher.
  2. Above expectations: +0.4% to +0.7%: An astonishing aloft reading can send the pair below one support line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above +0.8%: An unexpected swell in a reading would push USD/CAD downwards, and a second support turn competence be damaged as a result.
  4. Below expectations: -0.7% to -0.4%:  A poignant contraction in economic growth reading could means the pair to stand and mangle one turn of resistance.
  5. Well next expectations: Below -0.7%. A really diseased reading would expected harm a loonie and USD/CAD could mangle above a second insurgency level.

For some-more on a loonie, see a USD/CAD forecast.

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Kenny Fisher – Senior Writer

A local of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for 7 years in a selling and trading departments during Bendix, a unfamiliar sell association in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has endless knowledge as an editor and writer.

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Japanese Yen Steady after Retail Sales Contract, Risk Focus Intensifying

Talking Points:

  • USDJPY small altered after Japanese information crossed a wires
  • Large retailers’ sales fell 0.3% in Jun contra 1.8% expansion expected
  • Both a FOMC rate preference and Japanese CPI dawn ahead

The Japanese Yen was small altered contra a US reflection after June’s Japan sell sales and sell trade information crossed a wires. Retail trade decreased to 0.9% year-over-year (YoY) in Jun contra 1.1% approaching and 3.0% a prior month. On a monthly basement (MoM) sales decreased 0.8% contra a 0.9% contraction approaching and 1.7% expansion a prior month. Large retailers’ sales declined to 0.3% y/y in Jun contra approaching expansion of 1.8% and 5.3% a final update. Overall, a information was softer than expectations though not startling adequate to change expectations for a BoJ, Abenomics or confuse from a arriving session’s high turn eventuality risk.

Currently, a Bank of Japan is in a midst of an ¥80 trillion, open-ended quantitative easing bid to move adult acceleration to a 2% target. The information seemed to have no poignant impact on expectations for a BOJ, either it be an ascent or downgrade. Looking during a calendar ahead, a FOMC rate preference is after currently and Japan’s inhabitant CPI total are due Thursday. These events will expected have some-more change over Yen volatility.

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Stand aside

USD/JPY – 124.31

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  –

Target :  –

Stop : –

Despite intra-day crack of prior insurgency during 124.48, miss of follow by shopping and stream shelter from 124.58 advise converging would be seen and pullback to a Kijun-Sen (now during 124.07) can't be ruled out, however, reckon prior insurgency during 123.79 would spin into support and enclose dollar’s downside, pierce another arise later.

Above pronounced insurgency during 124.58 would extend new upmove to 124.80, afterwards exam of psychological 125.00, however, detriment of nearby tenure ceiling movement would forestall pointy pierce over latter turn and risk another shelter later.  In perspective of this, would not follow this pierce here and would be advantageous to mount aside for now.

GBPUSD orders 30 July

Currently 1.5602 with support into 1.5580 still. Offers into 1.5630, 1.5650 and 1.5700 again after yesterday rally/retreat

Offers 1.5630 1.5650 1.5680 1.5700-10 (stops above) 1.5725-30 1.5750

Bids  1.5580-85 1.5565 1.5550 1.5520-25 1.5500 1.5485 1.5450 1.5425-30 1.5400

USDCAD Plummets Following US Oil Inventories Data

Talking Points:

  • USD DOE Crude Oil Inventories comes in during -4203K vs 850K estimates
  • US DOE Gasoline Inventories has a -363K review vs 250K marketplace expectations
  • USDCAD plummets -60-pips following gloomy oil inventories information

US DOE Crude Oil Inventories missed large time on expectations set onward by Bloomberg news economists of 850K. The data, that came in during -4203K, represents a -5053K miss. U S DOE Gasoline was also off a symbol reading -212K vs 250K estimates. Cushing Crude Inventory was -212K vs 250K estimates while essence inventories was a usually auspicious DOE review entrance in during 2588K vs 1450K estimates.

The US Dollar was enervated by a adverse oil inventories information causing a outrageous downtick opposite a Canadian Dollar. USDCAD traded during $1.2945 before to a information prints and forsaken -70-pips after marketplace participants labelled a misses from estimates. USDCAD found support during $1.2867 and has given climbed trading during $1.2889 during a time of writing.

USDCAD Plummets Following US Oil Inventories Data

Here’s a full outline of US DOE information during 14:30GMT:

USDCAD Plummets Following US Oil Inventories Data